ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number 19 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152018 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 30 2018 Miriam's satellite appearance improved early this morning, when a banding type eye appeared in traditional satellite imagery shortly after a well-developed eye was evident in a 1326Z GPM microwave overpass. Cold cloud tops briefly encircled a portion of the eye, but the eye is now cloud-filled once again. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW trended up to 4.5/77 kt, and the initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been increased to 75 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/7 kt. The window for additional strengthening is expected to soon close as Miriam moves north into an area of very strong vertical wind shear and decreasing SSTs. Miriam will move nearly due north in the deep southerly flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to the north. This gradient will also increase vertical wind shear to near 30 kt in 24-36 h. SSTs currently near 28C will drop below 26C after 48 h, with the cumulative effects leading to a fairly fast rate of weakening after tomorrow. The shallow remnant of Miriam is then expected to make a turn toward the northwest, primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow, and is expected to be close to dissipation by the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast is on the left hand side of the guidance envelope, but has been nudged to the right at almost all time frames, to be more in line with the TVCE and HCCA ensembles. The intensity forecast follows trends presented by all reliable guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 17.0N 141.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 18.7N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 20.4N 141.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 22.1N 142.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 28.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 30.0N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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