ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 It looks like Kristy may have peaked in intensity. The cloud tops of the central dense overcast have warmed since 6 hours ago, and any hints of an eye-like feature in visible imagery have disappeared. The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise of all available satellite estimates, which still vary widely. Kristy has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm, and steady weakening from this point is likely as the tropical storm moves over progressively colder waters. All of the intensity guidance agrees on this solution, and confidence in the forecast is high. The dynamical models generally agree that cyclone will lose all deep convection by Sunday and become a remnant low. Kristy is moving due north, and the initial motion estimate is 360/7 kt. Kristy should continue to move generally northward for the next 24 hours or so while it maintains at least some deep convection. Beginning day 2, a turn toward the northwest, and eventually west, will begin as the cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The guidance, especially the GFS, has shifted southwestward again, but is at least in a little better agreement than it was previously. The NHC forecast has likewise been shifted substantially toward the southwest by the end of the forecast period, and remains very close to HCCA and TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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