ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 John continues to slowly weaken as the storm moves over 22 degrees C waters well west of the Baja California Peninsula. Although cloud tops have become progressively warmer over the past 12 hours, satellite imagery indicates that the storm still has a well-defined structure, with tight banding around the system center and an eye-like feature. Based off the decrease in convection, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This is in agreement with an average of Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB and SAB. Given the good structure of the storm this evening, John will likely maintain tropical storm intensity through most of Friday. After that time, progressively cooler SSTs and stable air should cause convection to dissipate sufficiently enough for John to be considered a remnant low. Once it becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin down until it dissipates early next week. After a leftward jog in the track earlier today, the tropical storm has resumed a motion of 300/12 kt. This track is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Thereafter, the left-biased GFS, which had been calling for an interaction between the remnants of John and Tropical Storm Kristy to the southwest, has now backed off that solution in the 18Z run. This has resulted in a rightward shift in many of the consensus models. With this shift in guidance, the forecast track has also been adjusted slightly to the right, very close to the latest TVCN solution, which has the remnant low of John drifting northwest then north later this weekend into early next week. Swells associated with John continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach portions of the southern California coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.5N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto NNNN
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