ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane John Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Satellite images indicate that John has resumed its intensification trend, with a ragged eye showing up in the night-visible and other channels. Dvorak estimates are between 70-90 kt, so 80 kt is used as the initial wind speed. John has another day or so to intensify in a low-shear, warm-water environment before it rapidly crosses into cooler waters. The hurricane has been intensifying at a rate of about 30 kt/24 hours, so this trend was heavily weighted in the latest forecast given the continuation of the conducive environment. All of the guidance show a pretty steep drop in intensity as the hurricane quickly enters cool waters, with rapid weakening likely. The latest forecast is close to the previous one, but shows John becoming post-tropical by day 4 when it will be over 21C waters. John continues to move northwestward, now at about 8 kt. The hurricane should move in that general direction but faster over the next 3 days under the influence of a strengthening subtropical ridge. As John weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward, steered more by the low-level ridge. Guidance remains tightly clustered and no significant change was made to the previous forecast track. The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California Peninsula. However, an eastward shift of the forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of this hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:43 UTC