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Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018

The last bit of convection occurred around 0600 UTC, consisting of
cloud tops to -30C to -35C. This allowed TAFB to provide a Dvorak
satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of 30 kt. This was enough
to still classify Daniel as a tropical depression. Since that time,
however, the convection has eroded significantly and cloud tops have
warmed to only around -15C. Weakening is expected during the next
couple of days as the small cyclone moves over SSTs less than 24C
and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds.
Degeneration into a remnant low pressure is expected later this
morning, with dissipation is forecast by 48 hours. The next advisory
could easily be the last forecast required for this system.

The shallow cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 7-8 kt. Now that
Daniel has become embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind
flow, the cyclone and its remnants should move westward at around 10
kt until dissipation occurs in a couple of days.  The official
foreast track is just an update and extension of the previous
advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track models HCCA
and TCVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 19.9N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1800Z 20.0N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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