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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 109.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 109.4 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northward motion should begin later today.  On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.  The
weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland
Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a
tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur later
today, but is expected to weaken as it moves over the peninsula. Bud
should degenerate into a tropical depression or a remnant low while
it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic station located in the
Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a wind gust of 49 mph
(80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning later today.

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through
Saturday. Bud is also expected to produce additional rainfall of 1
to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango with isolated maximum
of 3 inches.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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