ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018 Aletta has rapidly weakened during the past several hours, with the main convection currently dissipating to the north and northeast of the now-exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Rapid weakening should continue due to a combination of shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and entrainment of dry air. Based on current trends, the new intensity forecast shows a faster demise for Aletta than the previous advisory, with the system now forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h, and degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The initial motion is quite uncertain due to Aletta being south of where the earlier microwave fixes indicated it to be and due to the exposed center moving southwestward. This advisory will use a longer-term motion of 275/5. Most of the track guidance forecasts the cyclone to resume a west-northwestward motion over the next few hours, then again turn westward by 24-36 h. After that time the remnants of Aletta are expected to move slowly west-southwestward. The new forecast track follows this basic scenario, but it lies well to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models based on the current trends. An alternate scenario is that Aletta never makes the west-northwestward turn, which would result in the decaying system tracking south of the new forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.1N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.6N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 17.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 17.1N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 16.9N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 15.5N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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