ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018 The cloud pattern of the storm is gradually becoming better organized, but most of the deep convection is confined to the eastern and southern portions of the circulation. Cirrus cloud motions suggest that the upper-level outflow is slightly restricted over the northwest quadrant, but vertical shear is not very strong over the system. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are unchanged from the previous synoptic time so the current intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Since Aletta should remain over warm waters with modest shear over the next several days, strengthening is likely. The model guidance is not very bullish on intensification, however. Given the apparently favorable environment, the official forecast is at the high end of the guidance. Based on a recent GMI microwave image, the center is repositioned a little to the north of the previous track. This gives an estimated initial motion of 280/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from Mexico into the eastern Pacific should induce a westward or slightly north of west motion over the next several days. The latest GFS and its ensemble mean are on the northern side of the track guidance envelope and the ECMWF forecast is near the southern side. The official forecast essentially splits the difference and lies quite close to the dynamical model consensus, and is not much different from the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.7N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.0N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 15.2N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 16.0N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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