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Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence has generally changed little during the past several
hours.  The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast
feature with the low-level center estimated to be closer to the
southern side of the convection.  All of the satellite intensity
estimates have held steady and support maintaining the wind speed
at 45 kt.

Although Florence is located in an environment of relatively low
wind shear, the SSTs beneath the cyclone are cool, around 26 deg C.
The tropical storm is expected to move over gradually warmer waters
beginning in about 24 hours, but it will also be moving into an
environment of higher shear.  These mixed signals suggest that
Florence will likely change little in intensity or weaken
slightly during the next few days.  By the end of the forecast
period, however, the shear is expected to lessen and by then
Florence should be over much warmer waters.  Therefore,
strengthening seems likely in the 4 to 5 day time period.  The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance.

Florence is moving west-northwestward at 15 kt steered by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast.  Although the track models all
show a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during
the next several days, the north-south spread becomes fairly large
by the end of the forecast period.  This spread appears to be
primarily associated with differences on how strong or vertically
coherent each model predicts Florence to be.  Since the NHC forecast
shows the storm changing little in strength for the next few days,
this track prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope
close to the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.9N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.3N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.7N  40.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 19.2N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.8N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.5N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 23.6N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 25.5N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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