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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure has continued to become better defined,
and is still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather
with gusty winds.  However, the system lacks a well-defined center,
and Dvorak classifications do not support to classify the
disturbance as a tropical depression at this time.  An environment
of high moisture and low shear favors genesis, and the disturbance
is expected to become a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24
hours.  These favorable conditions are expected to prevail, so the
NHC forecast gradually brings the winds up at a similar rate as the
intensity consensus.

Since the system lacks a well defined center, the initial motion is
uncertain.  The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at
8 kt.  The disturbance is moving rather slow because it is still
embedded within the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow.  Once it
moves away from that region near Africa, it will be steered by the
trade winds around the subtropical ridge, and the system will
increase its westward or west-northwestward forward speed.  By the
end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin
as the cyclone reaches a weakness in the subtropical high.  The
NHC forecast is similar to the earlier one, and is in between the
corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.9N  19.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/0600Z 13.1N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  31/1800Z 14.0N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.7N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.5N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 17.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.7N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 21.0N  43.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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