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Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018

Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective
band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB
provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier
ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is
used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone.
Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during
the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since
Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded
within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so.  Debby is
forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355
degrees at 13 kt.  The subtropical storm should continue on this
general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24
hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,
which will eventually absorb Debby.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 39.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 41.0N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 42.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 44.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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