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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018
 
Chris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding
convection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers
are either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90
kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a
little during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the
Gulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move
over increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire
extratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland.
 
Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward
speed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19
kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of
a large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer
the hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional
increase in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement
and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This
increases considerably the confidence in the track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 35.3N  69.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 37.2N  67.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 40.9N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 45.0N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 48.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0600Z 55.5N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0600Z 63.0N  15.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Avila
 
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