ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 We have good data this morning. Very useful radar images from Mexico show that Max's structure has improved during the past few hours. An excellent ASCAT pass over the system was helpful in determining the intensity and the tropical-storm-force wind radii. Furthermore, the ship A8MW6 reported 45 kt winds and 11 foot waves near the coast of Mexico. Based on these data, the initial intensity was adjusted to 55 kt. At this point, it would only take a small increase in intensity for Max to reach the coast as a hurricane. Once the center moves inland the cyclone is forecast to weaken quickly and dissipate within 36 hours. Max is moving toward the east-northeast or 070 degrees at 5 kt. The storm is embedded within a west-southwest flow and this flow pattern will steer Max toward Mexico until dissipation. Based on the forecast track, the core should be inland within the warning area within the next 12 hours. Max will produce life-threatening flooding rainfall in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 16.6N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.9N 99.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 17.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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