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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
600 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 107.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 107.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will
approach the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Wednesday, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday.

The disturbance continues to become better organized, and only a
small increase in the organization of the associated showers and
thunderstorms would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the watch area on Thursday.  Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the coast of Michoacan,
Colima and Jalisco tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20
inches possible along the immediate coast.  This rain could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 12:10:13 UTC