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Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-E (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito, for
the east coast of Baja California Sur from west of La Paz to San
Evaristo, and for the west coast of Baja California Sur from north
of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
west coast of Baja California Sur from north of Puerto Cortes to
Puerto San Andresito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo
* mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from north of San Evaristo to Loreto
* north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of the disturbance or the tropical cyclone will be
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late
Thursday, and near Baja California Sur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
system could still become a hurricane before landfall.

The disturbance appears to be developing a better defined center,
and only a small increase in organization would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression or storm.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja
California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of
20 inches.  In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima,
southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area late Thursday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the warning area in mainland Mexico
starting late on Thursday, and in the watch areas in Baja California
Sur on Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and east of the center over
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and western Mexico.  These swells will
reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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