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Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-E (Text)


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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO EAST OF LA PAZ.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM
NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
AND ON THE MAINLAND FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 109.2W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.3N 109.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.4N 112.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:10:20 UTC