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Tropical Depression LIDIA (Text)


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Tropical Depression Lidia Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017

Lidia continues to weaken over the very cold waters of the
northeastern Pacific.  There have been no recent reports of
sustained winds above 30 kt, so Lidia is now classified as a 30-kt
depression, in agreement with the Dvorak current intensity estimate
from TAFB.  Deep convection is limited to a broken band displaced
about 120 n mi to the northeast of the low-level center.  Assuming
this convective trend continues, Lidia will likely become a remnant
low overnight.  After becoming post-tropical, the global models are
in good agreement that the circulation of Lidia should continue to
gradually spin down over the course of a day or two, before
dissipating in about 48 h.

A recent SSMIS overpass indicates that the low-level circulation
is somewhat ill defined and located nearly a degree to the west of
our previous center estimate.  The initial position and subsequent
track forecast has been shifted in that direction, but not quite as
far as the microwave data would suggest, given the uncertainty
associated with that fix.  Regardless of the exact center position,
Lidia is still expected to continue generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next 24-36 h along the southwest periphery of
a mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 29.0N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 29.9N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0000Z 31.0N 119.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 31.7N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:10:18 UTC