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Tropical Storm KENNETH (Text)


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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth's associated deep convection has been diminishing in
coverage and intensity.  The tropical cyclone is now traversing SSTs
below 25 deg C, and continues to weaken.  Using a blend of Dvorak T-
and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate
of 60 kt, bringing the system below hurricane strength.  Continued
weakening at a fairly rapid pace is expected while the system
moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters strong shear.
The official intensity forecast is close to the latest Florida State
University Superensemble prediction, and Kenneth should weaken to a
depression and degenerate to a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.

The initial motion estimate remains 330/10 kt.  There is no need
to make significant changes to the track forecast from the previous
advisory package.  Kenneth should continue to move through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-level trough
near 140W longitude.  Later in the forecast period, the shallow
vortex should turn leftward following the low-level flow.  The
official track forecast is only slightly to the right of the
consensus, and leans toward the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 21.8N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Dec-2017 12:10:20 UTC