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Tropical Storm KENNETH (Text)


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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Kenneth is very near hurricane strength.  It's rather apparent that
the northeasterly shear has relaxed, which, in turn, has resulted in
much less structural vertical tilt and a developing inner core
with -80C cloud tops.  The upper-level outflow over the northern
portion of Kenneth has recently become quite diffluent as well.
Based on the recent improving cloud pattern trend and a blend of the
subjective and objective T-numbers, the initial intensity is bumped
up to 60 kt.

Kenneth should continue to strengthen during the next 36 to 48
hours.  Beyond that time period, decreasing oceanic temperatures
and a trajectory into a more stable environment should result in
a gradual weakening trend.  The cyclone is forecast to gradually
spin down over cooler water of less than 23C, and become a
post-tropical cyclone by day 5.  The intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one and is weighted heavily on the IVCN
multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/15 kt.
There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy.
Kenneth should gradually round the southwestern periphery of a
subtropical high extending west of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days, and afterward, turn northwestward
into a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge.  Toward the end
of the forecast period, the cyclone should continue moving into the
break in the ridge and in a more north-northwestward fashion.  There
still remains considerable model spread after day 3.  The ECMWF,
UKMET, and ECMWF ensemble mean all indicate a faster weakening trend
which causes a vertically shallower Kenneth to track more toward
the northwest to west-northwest within the low- to mid-level
steering flow.  All other available guidance indicate a more
gradual spin down and a northwestward to north-northwestward track
beyond day 3. Consequently the NHC official forecast splits these
two solutions, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 16.2N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 16.6N 127.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 17.3N 129.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 19.5N 132.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 22.3N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 25.3N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 27.5N 136.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:10:19 UTC