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Tropical Depression JOVA (Text)


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Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The center of Jova remains exposed based on GOES-16 shortwave
infrared imagery. Another strong burst of convection has developed
since 0300Z within 60 nmi southwest of the center, justifying the
maintenance of Jova as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. Two
ASCAT passes at 0443Z and 0529Z each indicated peak surface winds of
24 kt in the western semicircle. However, since the scatterometers
missed the eastern semicircle, the intensity will be maintained at
30 kt based on a Dvorak satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB.

The motion estimate remains westward, or 270/13 kt. The initial
position had to be adjusted southward slightly based on GOES-16
high-resolution imagery and the two ASCAT passes that just caught
the low-level circulation center. Otherwise, there is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The deep-layer
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by the
bulk of the NHC model guidance to remain intact, driving the cyclone
and its remnants westward to west-southwestward until the system
degenerates into an open trough in 3-4 days.

Intermittent short bursts of convection may continue to develop for
the next 12-18 h or so, but on the whole, there should be a general
decrease in both the intensity and coverage of any convection. By 24
hours and beyond, moderate easterly wind shear near 20 kt along with
decreasing mid-level moisture and marginal SSTs below 26C should
result in steady weakening and a gradual spin down of the
circulation. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and the consensus model IVCN, with remnant low status
expected in about 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 20.4N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 20.5N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1800Z 20.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0600Z 20.3N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0600Z 19.8N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:10:09 UTC