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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017

The tropical depression remains strongly sheared from the
northeast.  Since the last advisory, small vortices have been seen
rotating around a larger/primary center that has reformed or
consolidated a little closer to the convection.  Due to this
relocation, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have
increased to 30 kt.  Since there are no in-situ or scatterometer
observations available, the initial intensity has been raised
accordingly, to 30 kt.

There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, and
there are still no models that show the cyclone becoming a tropical
storm.  Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics, the 850-200 mb
shear should increase to near 30 kt by tomorrow, accompanied by a
sharp decrease in available moisture.  Based primarily on the
HWRF and ECMWF models, the forecast calls for Eleven to become a
remnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 96 h.  Given the hostile
environment, it is possible that weakening could occur even
quicker, as depicted by the GFS and experimental HMON.

The track forecast has been shifted to the west for the first 12
hours due to the relocation of the center in that direction. Other
than that, very little change has been made to the official track
forecast.  The global models remain in good agreement that the
depression will continue generally west-northwestward, steered by
the low- to mid-level steering flow associated with the ridge to the
northeast.  Since the low-level winds are weak, the depression
should slow substantially before it dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 18.0N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.7N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 19.5N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 20.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 20.6N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 20.8N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Dec-2017 12:10:17 UTC