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Tropical Storm IRWIN (Text)


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Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Irwin isn't quite dead yet, with a new burst of convection in the
eastern semicircle, despite the storm being over sub-23C waters.
Intensity estimates are unchanged, so the winds are kept at 40 kt.
This burst should be short lived, and Irwin is forecast to lose all
remaining deep convection tomorrow over sub-22C waters.  The cyclone
is expected to gradually spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to
3 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains the same as the last
advisory, following the model consensus.

Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a
mid-level high following behind the remnants of Hilary.  This motion
is expected to continue for about another day, with Irwin predicted
to turn northwestward and slow down as the cyclone becomes shallow.
There is no significant change to the guidance, and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 23.8N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2017 12:10:27 UTC