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Tropical Depression TEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Satellite images indicate that the center of the depression remains
sheared, with the complex center on the northeast side of the main
convective mass.  Cirrus cloud blowoff from the band in the
northwestward quadrant of the cyclone is pretty clearly moving
right into the center, causing the asymmetric appearance.
Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind
speed will stay at 30 kt.

The upper-level environment is not ideal for strengthening with a
trough located north of the cyclone.  Most of the models lift the
trough northward during the next couple of days, which generally
causes lighter shear.  However, in a few days, increasing easterly
shear from the outflow of TD Nine-E is expected to arrest the
strengthening of the cyclone.  Model guidance, however, is rather
divergent, with the statistical-based tools showing little
strengthening, while the regional hurricane models all turn the
depression into a significant hurricane in a few days.  Given that
this forecast also depends on how much Nine-E strengthens and a
questionable environment, the regional hurricane models look
overdone, so the official forecast will stay on the conservative
side of the guidance.

The depression is moving toward the west at about 6 kt.  A ridge
between the depression and TS Greg is forecast to steer Ten-E to the
west or west-southwest over the next several days.  Guidance is not
in great agreement, with the GFS and ECMWF showing very different
solutions.  The GFS has the strongest ridge, which causes the
depression to take a sharper turn to the southwest, while the ECMWF
is north of all of the other guidance with a weaker ridge and more
of an interaction with TD Nine-E.  Despite these significant
differences, the model consensus remains close to the previous NHC
forecast, so little change is made to the latest NHC track
prediction.  Given the potential binary track interaction, there is
a lot of uncertainty at long range with the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 14.4N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.5N 115.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.5N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 14.5N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2017 12:10:18 UTC