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Tropical Storm HILARY (Text)


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Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017

The inner-core of Hilary continues to feature deep convection,
despite analyzed SSTs below 24 deg C.  At times during the day
today, an eye or eye-like feature has even been observed in IR and
visible imagery.  That said, an ASCAT-B pass at 1722 UTC revealed
maximum winds of only 46 kt in the NW quadrant.  Based on the ASCAT
data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, suggesting
that Hilary has finally begun to weaken.  The intensity forecast is
unchanged and steady weakening is expected until the cyclone becomes
a remnant low, now shown to occur in about 36 hours.  All of the
global models forecast that Hilary will dissipate within 4 days, in
close proximity to Irwin.

The initial motion is 310/11 kt, and Hilary has been slipping a
little to the right of the forecast track today, perhaps in part
due to the fact that it has maintained a fairly coherent deep
circulation.  A turn back toward the west-northwest is still
expected within the next 12-24 hours as the tropical storm weakens
and interacts with the circulation of Irwin.  The various global
models still differ in the details of that interaction, but
generally agree that both systems will be weak and one or the other
will probably dissipate before a merger can occur. Overall, the NHC
track has been shifted slightly to the right to account for the
initial motion, but is otherwise unchanged from the previous
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 22.3N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 23.3N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 25.2N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1800Z 25.5N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z 25.5N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:10:03 UTC