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Tropical Storm HILARY (Text)


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Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

During the past few hours, a faint eye has emerged with Hilary on
visible imagery, with even hints of a warm spot in the infrared
channel.  Overall, the satellite presentation has improved, and the
subjective satellite intensity estimates have risen to between 55
and 65 kt. A blend of these values gives 60 kt for the initial
intensity. This increase in winds should be short-lived since Hilary
will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more
stable environment.  By 48 hours, Hilary is forecast to become
a remnant low over 22.5C waters.  The latest NHC wind speed
prediction is a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the
intensity consensus.

Hilary continues moving northwestward, a little faster now at 10
kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from southern California
west-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary
on this general path for the next couple of days.  The forecast then
gets more complicated due to any interaction with TS Irwin.
Surprisingly, the model guidance has fallen into good agreement
since the last cycle, displaying a slowdown for Hilary and a small
turn to the west-northwest due to Irwin.  The latest models are
fairly close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant changes
are made. The other model trend of note is that none of the main
global models shows Hilary absorbing Irwin, likely due to how weak
Hilary will be in a few days.  Instead Hilary just dissipates over
the cold waters, and even a couple models have Irwin now absorbing
Hilary since it will have a much shorter time over the poor
environment. The NHC forecast will now show dissipation of the
remnant low of Hilary by day 5, in accordance with all of the global
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 20.3N 120.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 21.1N 121.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 22.3N 123.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 23.6N 125.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 24.7N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 25.8N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 26.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:10:05 UTC