ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Although the center of circulation appears to have separated from the cloud canopy a little more this evening, satellite imagery shows very little change in the disorganized cloud pattern of the depression. A compromise of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB again support holding an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The strong west-northwesterly shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next 24 to 36 hours which should allow the cyclone to intensify a little. The large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show the vertical shear returning around the 72-hour period, in addition to the depression moving over cooler water. Subsequently, the official forecast reflects the aforementioned environmental changes and indicates a gradual spin-down into a remnant low beyond the 48-hour period. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/8 kt, similar to the previous package. The depression is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of an anchored mid-level ridge that stretches westward from northwestern Mexico. The global and regional models are in quite good agreement through day 3. Afterward, there is some increasing spread between the majority of the guidance and the HWRF. The HWRF is indicating some involvement with the disturbance between Fernanda and the depression, and in fact, shows the disturbance merging with the depression. The official track forecast, however, discounts this scenario at this time, and is nudged closer to the model cluster and the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 14.3N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 14.8N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 15.1N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 16.4N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 16.7N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:10:13 UTC