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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Although deep convection continues to dwindle overall, a narrow
band of deep convection has continued to persist in the northern
semicircle and near the center. As a result, Eugene is being
maintained as a 40-kt sheared tropical cyclone for this advisory
based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of T2.7/39 kt and the
robust low-level circulation seen in visible satellite imagery.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 320/08 kt. A deep-layer
ridge to the northeast of Eugene is expected to keep the weakening
cyclone on a northwestward track throughout the forecast period,
which will be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed
after 24 hours. The NHC track guidance has shifted to the west, thus
the official forecast has also been shifted to the left of the
previous advisory, similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Eugene will continue to weaken throughout the next 4 days as a
result of the ingestion of drier and more stable air, and from
moving over colder SSTs of near 20 deg C by 48 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, which
has Eugene degenerating to a remnant low pressure system by 18-24
hours, and dissipating by 120 hours, if not sooner.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern
California during the next couple of days, causing dangerous surf
and rip current conditions.  Please refer to statements issued by
your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 22.3N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1200Z 25.3N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0000Z 26.2N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z 27.5N 126.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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