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Hurricane EUGENE (Text)


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Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Eugene's convective presentation has continued to wane significantly
during the past six hours.  Cloud tops near the center have warmed
to barely -65C and the overall cloud pattern has become elongated
northwest-to-southeast.  The initial intensity has been lowered to
65 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

There are no significant changes to the previous track and intensity
forecasts or reasonings. Eugene is expected to continue to move in a
general northwestward direction throughout the forecast period, and
steadily or rapidly weaken while moving over much colder waters
characterized by 25C-22C SSTs.  The track and intensity forecasts
closely follow the TVCN and IVCN consensus models, respectively.

Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during
the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current
conditions.  Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather
office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 20.6N 118.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 22.1N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 23.4N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  12/1800Z 24.6N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1800Z 26.7N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z 28.3N 124.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z 29.5N 127.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:55 UTC