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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
1000 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery suggest that the
low-level circulation has become more symmetric and that the
convective organization has improved somewhat since the previous
advisory.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
remain below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt.

Center fixes from recent microwave images show that the depression
is moving slightly faster than before or 045/5 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to continue moving northeastward ahead of a mid- to
upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The 18z runs of the GFS
and HWRF have continued the trend of a faster northeastward motion
toward the coast of southeastern Mexico, and the NHC forecast has
followed suit.  The new NHC track brings the center of the tropical
cyclone onshore within 24 hours, and shows a continued north-
northeastward motion until dissipation over southern Mexico in 48
hours, or sooner.  It should be noted that ECMWF and GFS bring
moisture and the mid-level center northward over the Gulf of Mexico
late this week, but the low-level center is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.

The depression is over warm water and within an environment of
light to moderate shear.  These conditions could allow for some
strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on
Thursday. After landfall, steady weakening is predicted and the
cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours,
and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides are likely to be the
biggest threat from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm.  The new forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 14.5N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 15.1N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 16.2N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 17.2N  95.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 18.0N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Oct-2017 12:09:51 UTC