ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017 1000 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery suggest that the low-level circulation has become more symmetric and that the convective organization has improved somewhat since the previous advisory. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Center fixes from recent microwave images show that the depression is moving slightly faster than before or 045/5 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northeastward ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The 18z runs of the GFS and HWRF have continued the trend of a faster northeastward motion toward the coast of southeastern Mexico, and the NHC forecast has followed suit. The new NHC track brings the center of the tropical cyclone onshore within 24 hours, and shows a continued north- northeastward motion until dissipation over southern Mexico in 48 hours, or sooner. It should be noted that ECMWF and GFS bring moisture and the mid-level center northward over the Gulf of Mexico late this week, but the low-level center is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. The depression is over warm water and within an environment of light to moderate shear. These conditions could allow for some strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. After landfall, steady weakening is predicted and the cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipate shortly thereafter. Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides are likely to be the biggest threat from this system even if it makes landfall as a tropical storm. The new forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.2N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 17.2N 95.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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