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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
400 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

The convective cloud pattern of the depression has improved a little
during the past several hours.  However, partial ASCAT overpasses
and visible satellite imagery suggest the circulation is elongated
east-to-west with the center likely near the western edge of the
central convective mass.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB have increased to 30 kt, so that will be the initial
intensity.

The cyclone has been moving erratically, with the initial motion a
somewhat uncertain 045/2.  A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36-48 h.  After that,
there is still divergence between the models on whether the
cyclone, or its remnants, will continue northeastward over Mexico
or stall near or south of the Mexican coast.  A major change since
the previous advisory is that the ECMWF now calls for the system to
move northeastward and make landfall in Mexico in about 24 h, which
is faster than some of the other models.  However, the UKMET and
the UK Ensemble mean still show a westward turn after 36 h or so.
Given the change in the ECMWF, the new track forecast is shifted
north of the previous track and now calls for the center to move
onto the Mexican coast in 36-48 h.  Additional changes in the
forecast track may be needed tonight if current model trends
continue.

The intensity forecast is low confidence.  The environment of
moderate shear and warm water should allow gradual strengthening.
This is reflected in the intensity guidance and forecast, which
call for the system to become a tropical storm in about 24 h.
However, the current structure and the possibility of land
interaction should limit intensification, and an alternative
scenario based on the faster ECMWF landfall is that the system does
not become a tropical storm before reaching the Mexican coast.
The new forecast track requires significant changes in the latter
part of the intensity forecast, which now calls for the cyclone to
dissipate by 120 h due to passage over Mexico.  It should be noted
that if the center moves farther inland than currently forecast it
should result in earlier dissipation.

Heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the biggest
threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a tropical
storm.  A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of
the coast of Mexico tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 13.9N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.2N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.1N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.7N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/1800Z 16.0N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:51 UTC