ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017 1000 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 The low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various satellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation. Based on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression Two-E. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on current satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 035/3. A mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so. After that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance. The GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over southeastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds to the north. The latter part of the track forecast somewhat splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the cyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET. The depression is in an environment of 10-15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear, and the large-scale models suggests that this condition should persist for the next 36-48 h. After that, while the shear may decrease the cyclone is likely to be close enough to the mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development. The intensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 h followed by little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast period. The forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time. However, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the biggest threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a tropical storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.9N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.2N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.6N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 14.9N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.1N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 15.5N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 15.5N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 98.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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