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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN (Text)


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Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 83.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 83.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue this morning.  A north-
northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin
later today and continue through late Friday.  On the forecast
track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.  The center is
expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before
it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua.  Additional
strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday
night and Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua later this morning, and spread into
Honduras late today.  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Dec-2017 12:09:45 UTC