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Hurricane KATIA (Text)


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Hurricane Katia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the central
pressure had dropped to 982 mb and maximum SFMR-observed surface
winds were close to 70 kt.  Therefore 70 kt will be retained for the
current intensity.  Vertical wind shear should remain low over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days and the global
models show well-developed upper-level outflow over the tropical
cyclone.  Thus, further strengthening is likely up to landfall.  The
official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model
consensus and Katia could approach major hurricane status before it
crosses that coast.

Fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft show essentially no motion
over the last several hours.  A mid-level ridge is likely to build
to the north of Katia during the next day or so.  This should
induce a west-southwestward motion beginning tonight or early
Friday, leading to landfall by late Friday or early Saturday.  The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to
the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 21.6N  94.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 21.4N  95.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 21.2N  95.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 20.7N  96.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 19.9N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:09:31 UTC