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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
800 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 JOSE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near
latitude 16.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Jose is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest
with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin overnight and
continue through the weekend.  On the forecast track, the core of
Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next day or so.  Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based observations from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area on Saturday.  Hurricane conditions are also possible within
the hurricane watch area on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday
morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the hurricane warning areas.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to continue for a couple
of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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