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Tropical Storm JOSE (Text)


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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

There has been little overall change to Jose's cloud pattern since
the previous advisory, as shallow convective bands remain over the
northern and western portions of the circulation. Some of these
bands are moving across portions of eastern Cape Cod, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket.  The initial intensity has been reduced to
50 kt, which is supported by earlier aircraft data and a recent
partial ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt

Water vapor imagery shows that the trough moving over eastern Canada
has now passed to the northeast of Jose.  As a result, the tropical
storm is beginning to slow down.  Jose is foreast to meander within
weak steering currents over the next day or so. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to drift westward or southwestward as a ridge
builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone over the weekend.
There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Cool sea surface temperatures, a drier mid-level airmass, and
increasing westerly shear should result in gradual weakening during
the next several days.  Jose is likely to lose its remaining
convection and become post-tropical in about 48 hours.  The global
models predict dissipation in 96 to 120 h, and the new NHC forecast
follows suit.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the
next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days. Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions for the next several days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 39.5N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 39.6N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 39.5N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 39.4N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/0000Z 39.1N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z 39.0N  70.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:33 UTC