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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery indicate that Jose's cloud pattern has improved
since the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more
evident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also
expanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like
a tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased
and were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the
convective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of
convection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near
and over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved
satellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Jose by 2300Z.

Jose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast
and is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to
the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning
toward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward
the east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of
deep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude
ridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the
cyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North
Atlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east
of the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution.

The center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over
21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane's
circulation will still be located over much warmer water, which will
maintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the
north of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be
20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the
previous intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and
HCCA.

The 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern
quadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore
buoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 37.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 38.2N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 39.2N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 39.7N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/1800Z 38.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/1800Z 38.3N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:30 UTC