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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Since the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection
within the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and
organization.  A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot
is apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone.  Dvorak
classifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt,
but given the increase in organization since then, the initial
intensity has been increased to 70 kt.  Additional strengthening is
still expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h.  After that time,
an increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are
still expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose
to gradually weaken.  The official intensity forecast remains a
little above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close
after that.

Jose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is 305/8 kt.  The main source of uncertainty in the track
forecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the
speed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of
the subtropical ridge.  The GFS continues to show a faster movement,
which allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before
an approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the
northeast.  On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so
the trough steers the hurricane farther east.  The NHC forecast has
not been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than
the model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF.  When the 00Z
ECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more
light on the future speed of the hurricane.  It is still important
to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about
175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the
speed of the hurricane (along track error).

While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore
for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane
becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east
of North Carolina.  For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location.  Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 27.4N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 28.1N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 29.2N  72.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 30.6N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 34.6N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 37.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 41.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 12:09:27 UTC