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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Jose continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical
shear, and a recent GMI overpass shows that the low-level center is
at the northern edge of the convective mass.  While the current
organization is that of a system of less than hurricane strength,
the various satellite intensity estimates remain near 65 kt.  Thus,
Jose remains a hurricane for this advisory.

The GMI overpass shows that Jose is moving southeastward or 135/7.
A large deep-layer trough to the northeast of the cyclone is
responsible for this motion.  However, this trough will soon leave
Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its northwest,
north, and eventually northeast.  This evolution should cause Jose
to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn
northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of
the ridge.  The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement
for this advisory, as the UKMET has shifted eastward from its
Florida landfall forecast and now shows a northward motion along
75W by 120 h.  However, there still remains a significant spread
between that model on the left and the ECMWF on the right, which
has Jose closer to 67W by that time.  The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track through 72 h, and then it is nudged
just a little to the west of the previous track.  The 72-120 h
portion of the forecast track lies west of the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and ECMWF, but lies to the east of the other
consensus models.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.  First,
the large-scale models forecast the current shear is likely to
persist for at least the next 24 h, followed by some decrease at
about 36-48 h.  However, none of the intensity guidance shows
weakening during the first 24 h or much strengthening at 36-48 h.
Second, the cyclone is likely to cross its path, and possibly a wake
of colder sea surface temperatures, between 48-72 h.  Third, Jose
should encounter stronger shear after 72 h, but it may interact with
a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States that may
give the system a kick through baroclinic processes.  Indeed, the
GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on showing a falling central pressure
from 72-120 h.  Based on the overall trend of the guidance,  the
intensity forecast is tweaked a little from the previous advisory to
show little change in strength through 48 h and slight weakening
thereafter.  However, this is a low-confidence forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 26.1N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 25.4N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 25.0N  65.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 25.3N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 26.2N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 28.0N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 30.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 33.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:31 UTC