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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

Jose is a very messy looking hurricane late this afternoon.
Persistent northeast shear of 20 to 25 knots has eradicated the
central features of the system, leaving a fairly amorphous blob of
intermittent, bursting convection. The satellite intensity
estimates came in at 4.3 from ADT, 4.5 from SAB, and 5.0 from TAFB.
The initial intensity was lowered to 85 kt, which is probably
generous given the recent rapid degradation in the satellite
presentation.

The best guess at an initial motion is 350/10. Jose is expected to
slowly complete an anticyclonic or clockwise loop over the next few
days, as a mid-level high to the southeast of Jose builds southwest
of the tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, then to the west of it in
36 to 48 hours, and northeast of it in about 3 days. By days 4 to 5
the high becomes more well established, and Jose will increase
speed a bit as it emerges from the loop and treks toward the
west-northwest. The guidance is tightly clustered through the next
few days, but diverges a bit in days 4 and 5, with more recent runs
showing Jose gaining a bit more latitude in the longer time ranges.
Have nudged the forecast track a little farther north toward the
GFEX, but the official track remains close to the consensus
guidance.

There seems to be better agreement in the models regarding the
magnitude of the northerly shear, which is expected to continue to
weaken the cyclone for the next few days despite warm SSTs. Jose
is also expected to cross it's own wake in a few days which also
will be unfavorable for strengthening. In the 4 to 5 day period,
the models suggest the shear may relax enough to allow for some
re-intensification of Jose, but confidence at this point is rather
low.  Our intensity forecast closely follows the statistical models,
and is near the lower end of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 26.4N  69.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 27.2N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 27.0N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 26.3N  66.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 25.3N  66.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 24.4N  68.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 26.0N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 28.1N  74.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:09:40 UTC