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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

Jose is fighting 25 knots of northeasterly shear this morning
according to the UW-CIMSS analysis. A new blowup of deep convection
over the center overnight is helping to maintain the satellite-based
current intensity estimates, with TAFB and CPHC coming in at 5.0
while SAB had 4.5 and ADT gave 4.6. Have maintained the intensity at
90 kt for this advisory. A 0826z SSMI pass and an 1118z SSMIS pass
were quite helpful in determining the analysis position.

The analyzed motion for 12z was about 330/12, but Jose should begin
trending more northward over the next few hours, if it hasn't
already. There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy,
as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the
next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a
mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in
24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose
between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a
rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past
few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward
the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to
the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west-
northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned
mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose.

Northerly shear should continue to affect the hurricane for the next
couple of days, although there are some differences in the guidance
about how strong this shear will be. Have maintained the trend of
the previous intensity forecast showing gradual weakening for the
next few days. Jose will likely also cross its own wake between days
3 and 4, which is a little later than previously expected with the
larger loop depicted in the forecast track. This forecast maintains
modest re-intensification at days 4 and 5 as some of the guidance
shows the shear relaxing somewhat and the SSTs will be quite warm,
although confidence is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 25.5N  69.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 26.6N  69.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 27.1N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 26.6N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 25.7N  66.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 24.1N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 24.6N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 26.5N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 12:09:27 UTC