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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose has continued to become better organized.  Banding convection
has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level
outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the
presence of Hurricane Irma to the west.  An eye-like dimple has
occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon.
The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.  There is no reason to believe that
the recent intensification trend will end soon.  In fact, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of
intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h.  My forecast is
just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by
the HWRF for the next 36 h.  After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast
weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model
consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the
forecast.

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery
indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously
estimated.  The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt.  Due to the
northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been
adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h.  However, the
reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should
continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily
by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should
cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more
latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting
that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected,
and have shifted westward a little bit.  The new NHC forecast at 96
and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is about a degree west of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 13.9N  45.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 14.5N  48.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 15.1N  51.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 15.8N  54.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 16.4N  56.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 18.5N  60.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 21.5N  63.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 25.0N  67.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:29 UTC