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Hurricane IRMA (Text)


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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE
SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF NORTH MIAMI
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
SUWANEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN
PASS
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS... VILLA
CLARA... MATANZAS... AND LA HABANA
* ANDROS ISLAND... BIMINI... AND GRAND BAHAMA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  81.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  933 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  81.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  80.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.7N  81.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.8N  82.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N  83.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...320NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.2N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...230NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 35.3N  89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N  81.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC