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ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102017
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017

CORRECTED TO CLARIFY THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING BEGINS NORTH
OF SURF CITY.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE ALBERMALE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  80.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  80.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  80.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.4N  79.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.5N  69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 42.5N  58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE 150SW 125NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.0N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 50.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N  80.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Dec-2017 12:09:18 UTC