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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

The disturbance has developed a center that has been trackable
this evening though it is still not well-defined, since it
appears to be considerably elongated northeast-southwest.  The
disturbance continues to display very cold, but extremely asymmetric
deep convection with all of the thunderstorm activity east of the
center due to strong vertical shear.  Moreover, the convection is
showing no identifiable banding features.  So the system is not yet
a tropical cyclone.  Regardless of the label we use to describe this
hybrid system, maximum winds are around 35 kt based upon a Dvorak
classification from TAFB and observed winds just below that from
the NDBC Buoy 41013.

The initial motion of the disturbance is northeast at a faster rate
of about 10 kt.  Continued acceleration is expected during the next
couple of days as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes
moves closer to the system.  The NHC forecast track takes the
disturbance across the North Carolina coastline today.  By tonight,
the cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the
Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope and is not substantially
changed from the previous advisory.

Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind
shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this
disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a
coin flip.  Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-
force winds across portions of North Carolina are likely today even
if the system does not become a tropical cyclone.  The system is
expected to become extratropical in 24 hours or less when it
interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough.
Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast
for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing.  No significant
change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 24 to 120 h are
based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 33.5N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/1800Z 35.4N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 38.0N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1800Z 39.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0600Z 41.0N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0600Z 44.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0600Z 50.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0600Z 55.0N  19.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC