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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Although the disturbance continues to produce a fairly large area
of deep convection, this activity is far from the estimated center
and the circulation remains poorly defined. Surface observations and
radar data suggest that the circulation of the system is stretched
from north-northeast to south-southwest, and the position used in
this advisory is near the estimated minimum pressure location.  The
initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier aircraft data
and a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Since the system does not have a clear center, the initial motion
is an uncertain 020/6 kt.  A faster northeastward motion is
expected to begin overnight or early Tuesday as a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to the
system.  The NHC forecast track takes the disturbance across the
South Carolina and North Carolina coastline overnight and on
Tuesday.  By late Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast to move offshore
and accelerate over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind
shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this
disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing.
Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-force winds
and heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas are likely
tonight and on Tuesday even if the system does not become a tropical
cyclone.  The system is expected to become post-tropical in about 24
hours when it interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level
trough.  Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is
forecast for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 to 120 h are
based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 32.5N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/1200Z 34.5N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0000Z 36.9N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 39.0N  69.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z 40.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0000Z 43.8N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0000Z 48.5N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0000Z 53.0N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:17 UTC