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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Radar, satellite, and surface observations indicate that Harvey's
center has crossed the coast just west of Cameron, Louisiana, with
most of the associated deep convection located over extreme
southeastern Texas and western Louisiana.  Although the rain has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, the Beaumont/Port Arthur area
was particularly hard hit overnight, with about 12.5 inches reported
at the Jack Brooks Regional Airport since 7 pm CDT.  ASCAT data from
late last night indicated that Harvey's maximum winds were near 40
kt, and the tropical-storm-force wind radii on the eastern side were
a little smaller than previously estimated.

Harvey has turned north-northeastward and is moving a little faster
with an initial motion of 030/6 kt.  The cyclone is located on the
northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric high, which should steer it
north-northeastward and the northeastward across the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next few days.  The
global models indicate that the surface low should dissipate over
the Ohio Valley by day 4, which is now indicated in the NHC
forecast.

Now that Harvey's center is moving inland, the maximum winds should
gradually decrease during the next few days.  Harvey is likely to
weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, and then it could
become a remnant low by day 3.  This weakening will not eliminate
the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's
path, although the system's faster motion will prevent rainfall
totals from being anywhere near what occurred over southeastern
Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week.  Isolated storm
totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including
the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  Please heed the advice of
local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe
place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A
summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches
are expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of
eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday.
Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from
your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 29.8N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1800Z 30.4N  92.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/0600Z 31.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/1800Z 33.3N  90.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/0600Z 35.0N  88.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/0600Z 37.5N  84.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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