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Tropical Depression EMILY (Text)


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Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

Radar and surface observations over east-central Florida indicate
that Emily's circulation has become quite elongated.  Water vapor
imagery also shows that drier mid-level air has moved over the
northwestern portion of the circulation, which has limited the
amount of convection near the center overnight.  Some deep
convection is noted along a trough axis well to the northeast of
Emily. Earlier ASCAT data revealed a few 20-25 kt wind vectors just
off the coast of Florida to the southeast of the center, so the
initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory.

Emily has been moving east-northeastward overnight.  The cyclone
remains embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that extends
southwestward just off the southeastern United States coast.  As
this trough lifts out, Emily should accelerate northeastward between
the western Atlantic ridge and another mid-level trough that will
approach the southeast United States in a day or so. The global
models shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the new NHC
track has been nudged in that direction.

The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain.  Since Emily's
circulation has become less defined and is near a weak frontal
zone, it is possible that that system will be absorbed within the
larger trough axis.  For now, the NHC forecast assumes that Emily
will maintain its identity and have a chance to restrengthen over
the western Atlantic.  Although the shear is not forecast to be
prohibitive during the next day or so, the current structure and
nearby dry air suggest any deepening should be slow to occur.  This
is supported by the global models which do not indicate much
intensification.  The NHC forecast is a little below the previous
advisory and is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.  Emily is forecast to become extratropical in
about 36 hours, but it could dissipate or become post-tropical
sooner than that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 28.3N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 29.4N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 31.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/0600Z 34.4N  70.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/0600Z 37.0N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0600Z 38.5N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:10 UTC