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HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016

Seymour is weakening rapidly.  Although a small eye was still
apparent in microwave data a few hours ago, this feature is no
longer evident in the latest geostationary satellite images.  In
addition, the convective pattern has become asymmetric due to
increasing southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to
95 kt based on Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  The hurricane is moving
across the 26 deg C isotherm and it is expected to move over even
colder waters during the next couple of days.  These unfavorable
oceanic conditions combined with drier air and a significant
increase in wind shear should cause Seymour to continue to rapidly
weaken. The NHC intensity forecast shows a very fast weakening
trend, predicting Seymour to fall below hurricane strength on
Thursday and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday. This forecast
lies near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.

The hurricane has made the expected turn to the northwest, and is
now moving 320 degrees at 12 kt.  A large deep-layer trough
located several hundred miles offshore of the U.S. west coast is
expected to move eastward, causing Seymour to slow down and turn
northward and then northeastward during the next couple of days.
The track models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.7N 121.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 20.1N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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