ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 Southwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Ulika. The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is elongated from west-southwest to east-northeast, with only bursts of convection present. The initial wind speed is conservatively reduced to 45 kt, a blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A large mid/upper-level trough over the central Pacific is forecast to remain nearly stationary, which should cause a further increase in shear. Dry air aloft should also help choke off the convection, and Ulika is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours. The intensity forecast is near an average of the previous interpolated official forecast and the intensity consensus. The intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one at long range due to the strong trade wind environment the cyclone is forecast to be embedded within. Ulika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 360/6. The small tropical cyclone should continue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level trough to its west until it becomes a shallow cyclone in about 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, it is forecast to move westward in the low-level flow until dissipation. Most of the model guidance was a bit faster and farther to the north, so the NHC track prediction is adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.8N 138.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.5N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.3N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 18.0N 142.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 18.0N 146.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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