ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 Deep convection dissipated well northeast of Roslyn's center around 0300 UTC, and the cyclone is now a convection-less swirl of low clouds. Partial ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicated that maximum winds were near 25 kt, and that is set as the advisory intensity. Deep convection is unlikely to re-develop due to very strong shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and a dry environment, and Roslyn will probably be declared a remnant low later today. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours, which is shown by all the global models. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt. Now that Roslyn is a shallow system, it should turn west-northwestward during the next 24 hours, steered by a low-level ridge to its north. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the latest consensus aids, and it is a little north of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.7N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.4N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z 23.8N 116.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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